When assessing the consequences of exporting grain from Ukraine, the expert spoke about “frostbitten”
Whether to Expect Provocations
In Istanbul, an agreement was signed on the creation of a corridor for the export of grain from Ukraine along the Black Sea. The document was signed by representatives of Russia, Turkey, Ukraine and the UN. About whether we should expect provocations from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, we talked with a combat veteran, captain 1st rank of the reserve Vasily Dandykin.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have anti-ship missile systems at their disposal. They may well strike at one of the bulk carriers and sink it, in order to later blame Russia for this. What will cause an international scandal.
“Anything can happen. But I still don't think they will. Other forces are interested in this grain. To some extent, this is compensation for the weapons that are supplied to Ukraine. Again, the agreement was signed by Turkey. This is a serious player who is in contact with Ukraine. I think everything is in agreement. Unless, of course, one of the frostbitten ones appears. Although the frostbitten sit at the very top there. But I think that they will not be given the “go-ahead” for such a provocation. In any case, you have to be careful.
The special military operation continues. You have to act carefully. Most importantly, there are certain obligations for that designated period. It is on the Black Sea. Ukraine recently threatened to destroy our Black Sea Fleet with Western weapons and return the Crimea. This was stated by the Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Gavrilov. They have a lot of experience when missiles fly in the wrong direction. On October 4, 2001, during an exercise, they shot down a plane flying from Tel Aviv to Novosibirsk with an anti-aircraft missile. Tu-154 exploded in the sky over the Black Sea. 78 people died. (The Minister of Defense of Ukraine said that there were no firings. Allegedly, they were canceled, but then he nevertheless admitted that the missiles were launched, but not far from the coast. After lengthy proceedings, Ukraine paid compensation to the families of the victims, but did not admit their guilt. – Auth.)
In this case, I think that Western curators will try to do everything to prevent this from happening. The Joint Coordinating Center in Turkey will monitor the export of grain. It will include representatives of the Quartet. It is important for us that dry cargo ships are inspected, first of all, at the entrance to the Black Sea, which will go towards Ukraine. So that they do not have weapons and ammunition. Back, let them at least take out the “bald line”.
– They are all nearby, not far from Odessa. There is, by and large, not as much wheat left as they say. Because part of it has already been transported by land by rail and along the Danube.
– When the Russian troops reached Kyiv, the Ukrainian Navy went out to sea at night and threw 420 anchor mines left over from Soviet times in the area of Odessa, Ochakov and Chernomorsk. They lay in warehouses for almost half a century, and then went into action. At least ten of them were blown off the minreps and drifted off into the open sea. Two of them were found and neutralized off the coast of Romania and Turkey. Another one swam to the Ukrainian coast. I don't know how Ukraine is going to provide safe corridors. Some mines were left at anchor. Minesweepers are needed to clear the passages. Ukraine does not have its own minesweeping forces. Maybe Turkey, as a Black Sea power, will help them.
Since the time of the counter-terrorist operation in the North Caucasus region, I don’t like it when there is a pause. We still need time to completely liberate Donbass. I hope that they will quickly take out the grain of last year's harvest. Then the elevators will be filled with the grain of the new crop.
It is a plus for us that all restrictions on Russian food and fertilizer exports to the world market are being lifted. We also benefited from the fact that we went to meet the UN. They gave a goodwill gesture. This will help stabilize world grain prices. There will be no reason to unreasonably accuse Russia of starving a billion people. In a situation where, God forbid, this happened to us, Ukraine would never have gone for it.
– I think they won't interfere. In my opinion, one way or another, but this may have to be dealt with, because from the point of view of the statement by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that if Western countries provide Kyiv with long-range weapons, then “the geographical objectives of the special operation will move even further.” And judging by the weapons that Ukraine is getting, in particular, all the new American HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, we need to go further beyond Kherson.
—Let's see, we have been running a special military operation for five months now. There are still other directions: Kharkiv, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye. Let the Supreme Commander and the General Staff decide.