The expert told what awaits Nazarbayev

The first president of Kazakhstan may lose security guarantees

President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev announced that he took over as head of the country's Security Council, which previously belonged to the first president of the republic, Nursultan Nazarbayev. In fact, the Elbasy deprived the last lever of power, before that, the government loyal to him was dissolved and his nephew Abish Satybaldyuly, who served as deputy head of the National Security Committee, was dismissed. Stanislav Pritchin, senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies, IMEMO RAN, told MK if this could be considered Tokayev's original plan to seize power.

Photo: Alexander Astafiev

– We do not know what agreements Nazarbayev and Tokayev had until 2022, and on what conditions Nazarbayev is leaving now. At the same time, two tracks stand out most clearly now. On the one hand, the protest is getting out of control, Alma-Ata is virtually lost to the security forces, in Aktau most of the security forces have gone over to the side of the protesters. On the other hand, Tokayev concentrates all powers of power in his hands. So far, both tracks are developing in parallel, but they will intersect when the question arises about the expansion of protest and the limited resources of the state and its sustainability. It is one thing in a crisis to take control of all power, and it is quite another thing to take control of the situation in the country.

– The protest was initially due to the increase in gas prices, and all subsequent events were used President.

– Versions with conspiracy theories are always very interesting, but given the dynamics of the situation and how unprofitable it is for the state, it is difficult to imagine that someone was ready to take such a step in order to reformat the government.

< p> – Yes, so we can only talk about facts, comparing them in time.

– Several years ago, anti-Chinese protests swept across Kazakhstan over the authorities' decision to lease land. Then, too, no one expected anything like this. Therefore, the question should be asked to the authorities that conduct sociological research. Before making any decision, it needs to be worked out in focus groups. In this case, the error led to disastrous consequences.

– I am not a supporter of conspiracy theories, but this possibility cannot be 100% ruled out.

– It will not be the easiest one. He still has serious guarantees under the law on the first president: life-long protection from criminal prosecution, state support, and so on. But the status of the head of the Security Council was also life-long. A legal collision undermines somewhat the entire system of checks and balances in Kazakhstan.

It is clear that without her father, Dariga Nazarbayeva will find it much more difficult to build her political career & hellip;

– It's a difficult question, because legally Nursultan Nazarbayev is not the owner of any enterprises. Another question is that there are his children, their husbands and so on. The question is what Tokayev wants. In addition, most of these companies are public, their shares are traded on international stock exchanges. If something happens to them, it can damage the image of Kazakhstan and many investment projects in the country. The system here is more complex than in Uzbekistan, and it is partially legalized through international platforms.

– There really were no systemic tough steps. There was no demonstrative suppression of the protest. The protester leaders are not late. As a result, the situation is negative for the security officials. As the protest widens, more police officers will side with the opponents of the authorities. Accordingly, more decisive steps need to be taken while the state still has resources.

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